Europe Was Supposed to “Wake Up.” Once Again, It Didn’t.

Europe Refuses To Grow Up

The thing about going through crises is that they’re supposed to change you for the better. It’s never nice going through something difficult - it can be traumatic and you never like it in the moment, but the upside is that once you’ve been through a serious shock, you’ll often come out the other side stronger. More resilient, with a lesson you maybe didn’t want but probably needed, or at the very least, with an awareness that you have to start doing things differently.

And so when Trump entered the White House for the second time earlier this year, and launched what seemed like a frontal attack against Europe, NATO and the whole idea of a free, united Western world, a lot of us hoped that maybe this time the crisis would finally stick. That the lesson would land and that unlike all the previous times when we've heard the same thing, this time Europe would finally wake up.

Because while it already feels like ancient history, the first few months of the Trump presidency seemed like an unprecedented strategic shock that completely shattered our view of the world. Trump, the second time around, now seemed even more erratic and more openly hostile to the alliance than ever before: openly questioning NATO and berating Europe, suspending military aid to Ukraine and expressing both an admiration for Vladimir Putin and a desire to annex Greenland. For any European governments still clinging to the idea of a stable and predictable US-led order, the start of Trump’s presidency could not have been worse.

That should have been the turning point. If Europe was ever going to accept that the postwar security umbrella is disappearing, this was the moment. And for a while, it did look like that realization was beginning to take hold as European governments started talking more seriously about defense, autonomy and re-examining their relationship with the U.S. and Europe’s own role in the world.

But fast forward a few months and it’s clear that this moment never actually arrived and although the rhetoric changed, the basic instincts did not. We should have taken all this as a big, red, flashing warning sign that Europe needs to start acting as if it was already on its own - because it might as well soon be. But instead, the lesson that we chose to take was that we need to do absolutely everything imaginable to keep America from walking away. Not because we still trust it, or because we believe it will really stay, but because we can't really imagine what to do if it doesn’t.

And the problem isn’t just that this approach is shortsighted, it’s that it’s actively making things worse.

Because if the US is now an unreliable partner - and I really don't see why it should be seen in any other way at this point - then the logical response should be to prepare to defend ourselves on our own. Not symbolically, not rhetorically, but structurally and seriously. Accepting that the alliance as we knew it is over, if not on paper, then certainly in nature. And that the US is now a potential ally at best, not a permanent guarantee. An ally that might come to Europe’s help if needed, but whether it’s actually gonna happen or what form it would take, is far from certain. And doing everything as if the alliance was already over in order to be prepared for the eventuality that it actually happens.

But that’s not what Europe is doing. What Europe is doing is instead trying to desperately keep America in - behind the scenes - and pretend that everything is fine - in public.

Just take a look at the result of the last NATO Summit and its main outcome: a pledge of NATO member states to spend 5% of GDP on defense as an example. In theory, this makes a lot of sense. Europe’s defense capability is insufficient because it was not spending nearly enough and so we need to quickly increase it so that we can be better defended.

But that’s not what this pledge is actually about - at all. If it was, we would be talking about how to spend the money to maximize European deterrence or how to replace the U.S. capabilities that Europe is lacking and that we might not have access to in the future - but those discussions are just not happening. And that’s because we’re not talking about 5% out of a desire to be better defended, we’re doing it to give Trump a win. To make him feel good and hope that America is gonna stick around a little longer.

In reality, the 5% number is not even real. It’s a composite target that includes 3.5% in actual defense spending, and another 1.5% in vaguely defined “defense-related” activities, which can include just about anything governments want it to. It’s a made-up number that no one (except for countries who were aiming for it anyway) would actually aim for but we still talk about it as if it meant something.

And as a result, we are playing games with made up numbers used to create some fleeting goodwill in the White House instead of having real, honest conversations about what the future of NATO will look like, what role - if any - will America play in it and how to best adapt for this future when it inevitably comes.

What recent months and weeks have increasingly revealed is that Europe has unfortunately not woken up. Instead, it’s still stuck in something that you could call a strategic infantilism. An instinct of being unable to actually grow up but instead having to keep coming back to Big Daddy America for protection because we just can't imagine doing it on our own. It’s a strange habit of learned helplessness that Europe has adopted during the decades of enjoying American protection but that it is now unable to give up, despite all the flowery phrases and big words about strategic autonomy. It’s the geopolitical equivalent of a 30-year-old still living at home, paying some rent, maybe doing the dishes, but fundamentally unready to move out - and terrified of what happens if they’re one day actually kicked out onto the cold street.

And I want to be clear: this isn’t about being anti-American - not in the slightest. Especially as someone from Central Europe, I was always incredibly appreciative of the protection that America provided to Europe. And if the US were still a consistent, credible partner, there would be little reason to change anything in our thinking. And this is not even a criticism of Trump, MAGA or the America First policy. While I may wish that it wasn't the case, I have a lot of understanding for their lack of willingness to keep protecting a continent that shouldn't need protecting. My criticism is instead aimed at us - Europeans - and European leaders, who largely pretend not to see what’s happening and refuse to accept and adapt to the world as it is.

And yes - maybe, in the end, the worst-case scenario won’t come to pass. Maybe Trump has changed his mind and came around on NATO and the U.S. commitments. Maybe he is just a one-time exception and once a new president comes in, Europe will be able to forget about all of this and settle back into a comfortable, secure alliance with the world’s most powerful military superpower.

It’s all possible and maybe it’s going to happen - but at least at the moment, this outcome is far, far from guaranteed. And planning as if it were would be incredibly naive and pretty dangerous. Because right now, the U.S. doesn’t look like a stable, reliable partner. And the idea that everything will eventually return to the way it was - that this is just a phase we need to wait out - is increasingly disconnected from reality.

We’ve entered a world where American commitment can’t be taken for granted. And yet the main lesson we’ve drawn is that we should do more to win back that commitment - not prepare for life without it.

And the absurd thing is, Europe doesn’t even need to be in this position. This is a continent of 500 million people, home to several of the world’s largest economies, a leading industrial base, and some of the most advanced militaries on the planet that should be able to deter any threat. The only thing missing is the mindset - the willingness to act like a sovereign actor, rather than a fragile appendage of an increasingly indifferent superpower.

Maybe the reckoning will never come, and we’ll get away with it once again. But if it does, we’ll be very sorry that we refused to grow up for so long.